Cooked Goose

Holy Read-Option Batman!

Did you see what Colin Kaepernick did to the Green Bay Packers? I know you did. Let me do the math: 181 rushing yards (NFL Record for rushing yards by a QB) = 18 fantasy pts; 2 rushing TDs = 12 pts; 263 passing yards = 10 fantasy pts; 2 passing TDs = 8 fantasy pts. -2 for an interception for a grand total of 46 fantasy pts. I went back and looked at what Kaepernick averaged since getting the starting job. A very respectable 17.8. Hmmm. Very interesting. Now guess what Russell Wilson did in his last 6? Would you have guessed 23.2? Better than Rodgers, better than Brees, touch better than Tom Fabulous. In the Divisional Championship loss to Atlanta, Wilson racked up 33 fantasy pts. Holy Read-Option Batman!

I was all set. Learned my lesson. Against better judgement reached for Vick, and was severely chastened. I was ready to change my tune about QBs. “Go the safe route. Grab one of the elite guys, and sleep better.” And then the read-option. The pistol. And I gotta tell you, I feel like that Defensive End standing there in space between the QB and the dive guy. Stuck. Frozen. “Who’s got it? Who’s got it?” Sigh I can’t do it. Believe me. I was set, ready to confess, to give an unequivocal endorsement to the elite, pro style QB. And the read-option comes along. I saw what I saw; I can’t deny it. Who can? Not going to blame anyone for taking Brady in the first round, but right now, I don’t think I’ll be doing it.

Man, was I ever wrong …

Totally missed it. My team was abysmal this year. And here’s a few things I missed:

1. Philly is going to make a deep run with lots of offense. Premise: They went on a four game winning streak to end last season. Like the Miami Heat team that put it all together in the season following the hype season, thought Eagles were poised to do the same. Michael Vick was going to rekindle the magic of 2010 and a newly signed DeSean Jackson was going to be the primary beneficiary.
Wrong. Wrong. And wrong.
Lesson: Bet with your heart, you have to tell yourself, “You know you can’t see straight, right?”

2. Chris Johnson is going to run wild. Premise: Again, Tennessee ended last season on an uptick, as did Johnson. Johnson’s slow season was due to his holdout and a coach change. With a full offseason and a resurgent team, Johnson will again be that scary rabbit. Wrong … oh, right … ah, not really. Tennessee is bad. The O-line is bad. The defense is one of the worst. And Chris Johnson is human. Another 1,000 yds, but not the 1st round production I was looking for.

3. Ryan Mathews is going to go bananas! Premise: Backs go off in their third year. Chargers shipped out VJax and so will go more balanced in their play calling. And most important of all, Tolbert the vulture was shipped to Carolina. The road is paved, Mathews going nuts. Wrong. How Mathews gets pulled for Ronnie Brown and that other dude is a mystery. Philip Rivers will huck it regardless … “No Vincent Jackson, not the same Gates, no matter. To the other team, just as good. I just like to throw it and see guys catch it.”

4. Greg Olsen is going to be a top 5 Tight End. Premise: Combine Olsen and TE mate Shockey’s numbers last year, and you get the number 3 Tight End in football. Carolina’s O Coordinator “cut his teeth” watching Antonio Gates auditioning for the yellow jacket. Carolina with Cam is only getting better. Wrong. And … um, wrong. Cam regressed. And Brandon Lafell became the another version of Jeremy Shockey.

Four of many I botched this past season. Here are some lessons I’ll take into 2012:
1. Coming into this year, I thought, “No matter what, I’m taking RB in the 1st round.” Not anymore. I see it in the game. Even short yardage is consistently gained through the air.
2. Adrian Peterson is super human. Normal rules do not apply.
3. I will not avoid rookies like the plague: Rober Griffin III, Muscle Hamster, Trent, and Andrew Luck.
4. Pick with your heart, choose to be a homer, prepare to deal with the consequences.
5. There are only a handful of locks in NFL. In the first round, you have to get one of those.

Pick a Winner

My beloved team went on a six game losing streak. I’m done. Where did it all go wrong? Felt good after the draft. Felt strong. On paper, my team looked solid if not phenomenal with lots of potential for upside. And then came out of the gates with the groan to never really find her stride. Why? Let’s take a look. It’d be a shame to go through all this without learning a lesson. And here’s an important one: Pick a winner.

Rarely do you get a player in fantasy who puts up nice numbers while wallowing on a losing team. You can have all the talent in the world, but without the opportunities the talent lies mostly dormant. My six game losing streak was due in no small part to the dismal teams my players represent. Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers, the Buffalo Bills. That’s a list of who’s who of coaches getting fired at the end of the season. I mean can you think of a more comprehensive list of disappointing teams?

Now take a quick scan in your mind of players on winning teams: Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, and even the Indianapolis Colts. Right? Nice numbers.

It’s tricky. The Eagles were the sexy preseason pick to win the NFC East. And Buffalo looked like they were stacking for a run at the Pats. And who had the Broncos being an offensive juggernaut? And Indy at 6-3? Nevertheless, the lesson here is a player is not an island. More often than not they are as good as the ten other guys on the field around them. Can you imagine what Larry Fitzgerald would do as part of the New England Patriots receiving corps?

To the degree you can pick a winner preseason will determine you picking winners in your draft.

Are you ready for some football … on Thursday?

No. No, I’m not. I have a job. I have a family. I’m not ready for Thursday Night Football. And the way the games go, apparently most players aren’t ready for ’em either. There’s a song kids listen to these days called … um, I don’t know what it’s called, but the bridge goes something like, “It’s not about the money, money, money. We don’t need your money, money, money. We just want to make the world dance. Forget about the price tag.” C’mon. I don’t believe her. Definitely not true in the National Football League: Fly teams midseason to London for the jet lag bowl. Lock out players. Lock out refs. And now they’ve expanded Thursday Night football throughout the regular season. You think the Arizona Cardinals wanted to play a late game Sunday, practice Monday-Wednesday, fly to St Louis and play on Thursday? Why would you put them through that? “It’s all about the money, money, money. We sure want your money, money, money. So we want to make the world watch. From Thursday night to Monday…”

Don’t know about you, but there’s something unsettling about playing players on Thursday night. Just like there’s something comforting about having a couple players going on Monday night. It’s like getting the first shot off. If you miss, you’re standing there in the open field, frantically loading your musket while your adversary takes a long, hard look at you. There’s a lot riding on that first shot. In light of last night’s ugly affair in St Louis, I’m beginning to wonder if that first shot isn’t fired off in less than ideal conditions – kinda like shooting in the fog. Something to think about the next time I have a marginal shot on a Thursday night.

What? No. Do I sound bitter? Did I start anyone last night, you ask? Yeah. (Sigh) I started three. Missed. I guess I’m a little bitter. Okay, yeah, maybe more than a little.

The Captain Goes Down with the Ship

You made the call. Go down with the ship. It’s the right thing to do. Yes, I did it. I drafted Chris Johnson with my first round pick, 6th overall. Why? Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time. He came on at the end of last year. The belief for me at least was that his lackluster start was a result of the combo of holdout and lockout. “The guy has a conscience,” I reasoned. After pocketing $30 mil guaranteed and producing the worst season of his career, he’s feeling bad – embarrassed even. He wants to show Tennessee that he was worth the big pay day. This season is starting worse than last. I think he’s averaging less than a yard a carry – something silly like 28 yds on 29 carries.

I haven’t yet, but I’m guessing other owners of Chris Johnson are getting some trade offers. Just stupid ones like, CJ for Michael Turner. “Your CJ for my Dwayne Bowe.” “How about CJ for TE Martellus Bennett.” I’m not doing it. For one, it’s a long season. Right now, Tennessee looks atrocious. They might stay that way and go down as this year’s St Louis Rams. Chris Johnson can average less than 3 yds per, and end up killing you. But we’re two games in. Last year Marshawn Lynch looked terrible at the start. DeMarco Murray looked terrible in his first game. Things can change.

Secondly, CJ’s worst season was a 1,000 yd season. How many players can you say that about? He’s young. He’s never had a major injury. For now, his job is secure. If you trade him for somebody now, you’re getting a player who’s ceiling is capped. You can probably get that in week 4 off the waiver wire.

I drafted Chris Johnson with my first pick. Leading into week 3, I wish I hadn’t. Bailing now isn’t going to put me in any better position. With the boat in trouble, I’m staying on to see if we can right the ship. If Chris Johnson goes sub 3 yds per the rest of the way, we’re going down. As the “Captain”, the one who made the call, I need to take my hat in hand, stand up straight at the helm, and go down with the ship. It’s the right thing to do.

Time for Dumpster Diving

So you say you had a bad draft. Well, join the club. It’s well represented – everyone from “family obligation” auto-draft dude to “I panicked when my guy got grabbed from under my nose in the first round. I never got back in rhythm. It was all downhill from there” guy. In our draft, one poor soul thought the 9 PM online draft was 9 PM Pacific. It wasn’t. When he showed up somewhere in the 11th round, his team was … well, let me put it this way, his RBs are: Rashard Jennings, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. Autodraft was unkind.

Well, I’m here to tell you it ain’t over. Not even close. What? The waiver wire looks like a barren wasteland? “There’s nothing out there,” you say? Even in the most desolate places, scavengers carve out a living. Like the jackal, you need to be crafty and learn to live on less. Here’s some tips for successful scavenging.

1. Go to where the vultures fly. They say vultures will hover over a dying animal. There are some running backs out there ready to keel over. And yes, you know who they are. How many of you think Frank Gore is going to last the season? What about Michael Turner? Look around for old guys and guys who’ve struggled to stay healthy and grab their back-ups. Kendall Hunter may be that little meal to tide you over for a few weeks.
2. Don’t be discriminating. “What? No way you take a Rams receiver? I didn’t know you had a choice.” Look, Rams will be down often and Sam Bradford will have to throw. With the offensive line the way it is, he’ll have to check down. Enter Danny Amendola. Hey, stop laughing and listen. Yes, exactly, the “Poor man’s Wes Welker.” The point being, you’re poor. He’s crafty, runs good routes, and most importantly there’s no one else. Also in this category, Devon Bess, and Greg Little.
3. Eat off another’s kill. Hey, if you can sneak a bone off a big kill, that’s good eatin’. Pick a 2nd or even 3rd receiver on a passing offense. Four interesting guys are: Alshon Jeffery (Chi), Titus Young (Det), Mike Williams (Tampa), and Brandon Lafell (Carolina).

Remember, you’re dumpster diving. You can’t be looking for a prime rib dinner. If you had Ray Rice, you wouldn’t be back here in a dumpster with me.

Ready to Dance

Hate to break it to you, but you got it wrong. Not the whole thing, but a pick or two, or three or … um four. Five? Last year, I got Vincent Jackson and LeGarrette Blount wrong. Of all the guys on my roster, those were the two sure fire, guarantee, “return on investment” studs. I took Jackson in the 2nd round and LeGarrette in the 3rd. There were a few others I missed, but those two were serious disappointments. If you’ve already drafted, just make peace with the fact that you got some of your picks wrong. You just don’t know it yet. Once you do … make peace, that is … you are set to dance. Hustle. Make some moves; make things happen.

The first rule of dancing is loosen your grip. You can’t dance when you’re stiff. Get loose. Relax. Try to listen to the beat. How this translates to making moves in fantasy football is you can’t put a stiff grip on a player. It’s okay to love Doug Martin. You can even tell yourself that you saw it the moment Tampa drafted him in the first round. But don’t grip; don’t get stiff. He may be the next coming of Ray Rice. He may just as easily give you subpar numbers sharing Tampa’s backfield with LeGarrette. C’mon, who among us thinks Tampa is going to be a offensive revelation? If the DeMarco Murray of 2012 appears in week 3, your stiff grip on Martin can lock you into an ugly freeze.

Just as ugly as a stiff dude who can’t flow with the beat is a spastic dude who jerks prematurely. They’re all wound up, bobbing when they should be weaving, shuffling when they should be sliding. You’ve seen ’em. They’re dropping a guy who’s injured for two weeks. They grab a Brian Hartline ’cause he went 105 and TD against the Lions. And then drop him the following week to grab Josh Cribbs because he ran back a kick-off and caught two passes for 80. Hey, hey, slow down, my man. Do you hear that? That’s a beat. Try to go with it.

Now that your team is set, get ready to dance. They’ll emerge: the Victor Cruzes, the Cam Newtons, the Marshawn Lynches. Guarantee you got something wrong on your draft. The moves you make to replace your mistakes will determine whether or not you’re playing into the fourteenth week.

Making a Mockery 

Ladies and Gentlemen, draft day is upon us. Which gets me thinking back to a memorable draft experience. I’d like to forget it, but the horror of it won’t let me be. An evening in early September. 2008. I sat with the ESPN Live Draft launched – the butterflies fluttering. The first round got under way just as the room began to dim with the setting sun. Right out of the gate, there was a stumble. Larry Fitzgerald went number one overall. That swerve shook up the whole virtual draft room. All of a sudden Adrian Peterson is available at #2 and everyone else gets pushed back. Sitting there with the eighth overall pick, suddenly a choice I thought I would not have looks me square in the eye. “Chris Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson? Whatya gonna do, pilgrim?” “Uh, um, … okay, wait … let me see?” The first few picks go off in rapid succession – bam, bam, bam. No brainers. “Wait! Hold up a minute! Slow down! Okay, let’s see here. LT is consistent. Going to give me 12 to 15 every week. Chris Johnson is an incredible talent, but unpredictable. Multiple games in single digits his rookie season. But man, is he fast! And then there’s the vulture, Lendale. Oh, man!” And then it was me on the clock, and it was speedlining. My two kids looked at me, “Dad, what you gonna do? Is that sweat?” The clock went red and started the beeping at me. My brain went numb; I clicked LaDainian. Instantly, I felt sick.

We all know what happened next. LT turned his ankle in game one and showed his age the rest of the way. It was the beginning of the end. The next season he was no longer a Charger. The Rastaman in Tennessee went on to scare Eric Dickerson in posting Fantasy MVP numbers. The dude who drafted him right after me at #9 won our championship.

Do not make a mockery of your draft. This week, take a few minutes to do a couple mock drafts. In light of the amount of time you’ll spend during the regular season, the couple hours spent pre-season in preparation will be well worth your time.

When I do a mock draft, I am trying to to do three things:
1. Practice thinking on my feet. You have to be flexible. A bit of practice shifting with the ebbs and flows of a mock draft goes a long way in your ability to adapt on the real day.
2. Identify a basic strategy. For example, you may conclude after a mock draft, “If I wait ’til the 6th round for a QB, I’m done.”
3. Finally, I identify some key players who will make me “happy” or “sad”. Sounds ridiculous but for me, it’s huge. Last season when I did a mock draft to see where Matthew Stafford would go, I looked at my roster without “Stafford” and it made me sad. I jumped up to take him in the sixth. Looking at him after our real draft sitting there in my QB slot. I was happy.

Good luck everybody.

Tight Ends Continued

Something to consider here is in most leagues there’s only one spot for the tight end. Like Quarterbacks, Kickers, and D/ST, the one spot start has to factor into value on draft day. Conversely, Running Backs and Wide Receivers, if your league has a flex spot make up five spots on your starting line-up. If you have one solid TE, you’re good. Even with two solid RB/WRs, your screwed. Taking this one step further, a TE can only give one spot’s difference against an opponent. So, as you look across the aisle at your opponent and his Jimmy Graham, you can take some comfort in knowing Jimmy alone can only do so much. While even a marginal advantage at RB/WR just by virtue of the number of start spots can result in a 30 pt thrashing.

I’ve heard of leagues that start two QBs. If I’m in one of those, I’m drafting a QB number one. I’m not, so I won’t. Likewise, until I can start two TEs, I’m not drafting one early.

At the very top, there’s not much mystery. The Gronk will probably go number one. Jimmy Graham, number two. I think they’re the same guy, and actually I like Graham better because there’s no Hernandez in New Orleans. And then you got the second tier: Witten, Davis, Gates, Finley, Hernandez, Gonzo maybe. You’ll have to grab them fairly early, but you know what you’re getting. Since I’m planning on going bargain hunting at TE, here are some intriguing dudes.

1. Jacob Tamme – Comes over to Denver with Manning. Manning loves the TE. Have you heard of Dallas Clark? A converted WR, he’s faster, more agile, and has better hands than most TEs. Two seasons ago, when Clark went on IR with a wrist injury, Jacob Tamme was the no. 3 TE rest of the way. Wow! Right?
2. Dallas Clark – Curtis Painter. Okay, that’s all I gotta say. Now, Josh Freeman will be throwing him the ball. He’ll not rekindle the magic that was Manning to Clark, but I think he’ll be a great value in this year’s draft.
3. Greg Olson – Lots of hype around him last season because the Chudzinski. Who’s Chudzinski you ask? He is Carolina’s O Coordinator. He was the TEs Coach in San Diego. You know, Antonio Gates. Olson disappointed finishing 17th amongst TEs. Combine the scoring of Olson and Shockey, the other Carolina TE, you get the number 3 TE last season. Shockey is no longer in Carolina. Chudzinski? He’s still there.
Other intriguing deals: Celek (Phi), Davis (Wash), Cook (Tenn), Fleener (Indy), Kendricks (St Louis), Moeaki (KC)

Wide Receivers Continued

Alright, I’ve laid out my skepticism about taking a wide receiver early. Just gives me the heeby-jeebies, man. Last year, I took Vincent Jackson in the 2nd. I reasoned: “He’s playing for a contract – probably the last “pay day” of his career. Rivers loves to throw it down field. Big, fast. I need VJax to anchor my WR corps. He’s a lock.” Wrong. In fifteen games, he went double digit a meager five times. Seven of the ten in which he went single, he went sub 5. VJax was about as reliable as a T-Mobile connection through the Mojave Desert.

So, yeah, I might be sitting there at our draft forced to choose between Marshawn Lynch and Andre Johnson. And I might be compelled to take the Houston wide out, but I won’t be happy about it. I’ll walk away feeling my hand was forced. If you suffer from the same aversion to wide outs as I do, you’ll have to go looking for some bargains. The undervalued. Here are a few I like:

1. Stevie Johnson – Inked a new deal. Buffalo looking to make a move. And he’s a tough competitor. Last year, played the whole season with a pulled groin, and still managed solid games on his two trips to Revis Island.
2. Hakeem Nicks – Victor Cruz took some of the luster off Nicks. Still #1 option on a increasingly pass heavy offense. Huge mits; best red zone option.
3. Miles Austin – Injury plagued year. Still the same hard working, good route running WR on a team that likes to throw. Bryant means the safety can’t cheat.
4. DeSean Jackson – Nothing gets a secondary clinching butt cheeks like DeSean with the ball. Happily signed, he can have a monster year. Again, Maclin keeps safety honest.
5. Brandon Lloyd – I know, I know. After Ocho, can you really trust any WR in New England other than Toby Maguire? I do think he fits better than Chad, and somebody needs to be single covered, right?
6. Randy Moss – When Moss respects the head coach, he plays. Played for Belichick, think he plays for Harbaugh. I think. Don’t quote me on that.
7. Kenny Britt – Was going to put him higher, but as of this morning, he’s been busted for DUI. The dude can’t stay out of trouble.

Who doesn’t like a bargain? Yeah, there are some chips, and you can’t expect to get the exact color and style. But if it’s not the centerpiece of your team, it makes sense to take a clearance item home and see if it works. When it comes to shopping for wide receivers, I love a bargain.