July 26th, 2013 § Leave a Comment
Draft Day Do’s and Dont’s
Look, I don’t know. Is Kaepernick going to be a top five QB? Will taking him in the 5th make your season? Can’t say. Without Crabtree, does Kaepernick struggle mightily? What about MJD? Will he have an inspired resurgence in a contract season? Or has the little wrecking ball run into one too many walls? No clue. They say Montee Ball is going to take over duties behind Peyton. And I’ve heard how often Denver likes to run it from inside the opposition’s ten. Yeah, I’ve heard. I also heard Ryan Mathews was going to be the second coming of Marshall Faulk.
Here’s the number one Do and Don’t: Do remember that you Don’t really know. There’s no shame in it. No one does. For every one you hit, you’ll probably miss two. Sure, go ahead and take credit for taking Adrian Peterson in the second. Tell everyone you knew. Have fun with it. So long as you tell yourself the truth, that right after taking him, late in the second you kicked yourself for not taking the Law Firm. And if you really don’t know then …
Don’t lock onto players. Last year, I locked onto Michael Vick. Realizing that I wasn’t seeing clearly, I told myself to wait until the 4th. “If he’s not there, you can console yourself with Matt Ryan.” I got antsy and jumped up to take Vick in the third. That’s what getting locked will do to you. Had I taken Ryan in the 6th, I would have been 4-2 at the halfway mark instead of 2-4.
Don’t lock and Do remain flexible during your draft. More often than not, autopick will pick you a better team than you’d pick for yourself. My point is the human element with it’s preferences and biases do more harm than good. By all means, have a plan but in each round consider the dozen or so players who are available around your pick. It’s fine to be looking for Wes Welker in the fourth, but take a hard look at Larry Fitzgerald if he’s still on the board.
Some more Do’s and Don’ts
Do have a plan. Tough to be flexible without a plan.
Do a couple mock drafts. You’ll be surprised how bad things can go the first time around.
Don’t take a flyer in the first two rounds. In early rounds, if you have the choice between Steven Jackson or Montee Ball, take Jackson.
Don’t believe the hype. There’s a reason why they are deep sleepers … they usually don’t wake up.
Don’t ignore history. Sure Darren McFadden can play all sixteen. It’s possible. History says he won’t. And when it comes to you vs. history, I’ll give the nod to history.
Finally, Do have fun with it. Don’t take it too seriously.