August 9th, 2014 § Leave a Comment
Method to the Madness
Is it just me or did the NFL Season sneak up on us? The first slate of preseason games are already in the books. Happen to catch any? Me neither. Okay, no problem. Still plenty of time to get our fantasy football wits about us before the draft. Now, let’s see … right. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl. Denver made history and then historically flamed out. The wheels came off in Houston. And oh yeah, the Raiders still suck. Got it.
Let’s talk draft, shall we? A good number of us draft the way a five year old paints – just throw stuff at the canvas and see what sticks. Sometimes you get a beautiful piece of art; other times you get a piece of something else. If you’d rather not leave your Sunday afternoon happiness to chance, I suggest applying a bit of methodology to the madness that is the fantasy draft.
First, three suggestions in no particular order:
1. Do a mock draft. It’ll help in two ways: Remind you how unprepared you are and remind you of the virtues of thinking on your feet.
2. Have a plan and be flexible – not mutually exclusive concepts. Plan to take a RB but be nimble enough to grab Brandon Marshall who inexplicably falls to you late in the 3rd.
3. Do not be careless with D/ST and Kickers. Yes, difficult to predict but not a complete mystery.
4. Remember it’s a dumb game governed more by dumb luck than anything else. Don’t take it too seriously.
My method and the logic (Let’s just call it logic for now … a little optimism never hurt) behind it.
Rounds 1-5 RB heavy and then WR. Not opposed to going RBs in first three rounds. Logic: Scarcity at RB and the wide variance between top tier and 2nd tier scoring. WR scoring potential coupled with the sheer numbers rostered.
Rounds 6-8 QBs hope for an undervalued 2nd tier guy but not opposed to going with a tandem like Dalton and Fitzpatrick. Logic: Despite their lofty numbers, not a great variance between top tier and 2nd tier or even 3rd tier QBs. Unless you’re in two QB leagues, there is a surplus of usable options. And yeah, I didn’t learn from Scott Tolzien.
Rounds 9-12 D/ST, TE, Kicker. Logic: Seattle D/ST more of a sure thing than Saints 3rd WR option. After Graham and Gronk, they’re all the same.
Rounds 13-15 Flyers … likely to be on waivers by week 3.