January 11th, 2014 § Leave a Comment
In my experience, there are some patterns. No secret to winning. No “insider” info. Some interesting patterns? Yeah.
First round. I whiffed twice in the 1st round. The first was taking LaDainian Tomlinson ahead of Chris Johnson’s historic 2000+ season. Ironically, the second was taking Chris Johnson in the middle of the 1st round, a season removed from his hold out season. Those two years, my team struggled. Barely got into the playoff with LT but I remember feeling like I had no chance. With Chris Johnson I didn’t even sniff the playoffs.
Waiver wire hero. This year it was Zac Stacy. In my first year it was Steve Slaton. Another year, it was Marques Colston. Someone dropped Marques Colston when he broke his collarbone. The projection was that the Saints wide out would be out four to six weeks. Feeling settled at the WR position, I decided to grab and stash the 4th round WR. He was out two weeks. It was the season Drew Brees was trying to break Marinos single season passing mark. Week 16 in a Saints blowout win, Brees just kept throwing. Colston ended with 16 pts. I won the championship by 1.
The bottom half. Those first two patterns, like I’ve said on numerous occasions, “Who knows?” When Zac Stacy went off against the Titans, I was just as surprised as everyone else. Grabbing a Rams running back this year was by definition a desperate play. Actually, I thought Percy Harvin was going to be my waiver wire hero. And who knew Trent Richardson and Aaron Rodgers were going to be 1st round disasters?
In my winning seasons, I got production from my TE, D/ST, and K. Unless you’re grabbing Gronk or Jimmy, those positions are going in the 8th or 9th rounds and below. Because they are not glamorous picks, most guys are shooting ’em off in the dark. D/ST can vary wildly from season to season. Couple years ago, the Panthers D was a disaster. They couldn’t stop anyone from running it down their throat. This year, that team was the Bears. Yeah, the team that was the fantasy darling two seasons ago.
Before you forget, just make a mental note of a couple options in those spots who could give you good production in 2014.
Here are three I’m keeping in mind: Jordan Reed TE Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Bucs D/ST, and 49ers Kicker – whoever it is.